South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, gained independence in 2011 after decades of brutal conflict with Sudan. The joy of self-rule was short-lived, however, as internal power struggles, ethnic tensions, and corruption plunged the nation into a devastating civil war just two years later. Now, as the country approaches its 13th year of independence, South Sudan stands on the precipice of yet another violent conflict. Despite multiple peace agreements, political instability, economic collapse, and communal violence threaten to reignite full-scale war.
A Hard-Won Independence
South Sudan’s journey to statehood was marked by immense suffering. For over 50 years, the predominantly Christian and animist south fought against the Arab-Muslim-dominated government in Khartoum. The First Sudanese Civil War (1955–1972) and the Second Sudanese Civil War (1983–2005) claimed millions of lives through combat, famine, and disease. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005 finally paved the way for a referendum, where nearly 99% of South Sudanese voted for independence.
When South Sudan became a sovereign nation on July 9, 2011, there was hope that peace and development would follow. But the new government, led by President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar, quickly fell into infighting.
Civil War and Fragile Peace
In December 2013, political rivalry between Kiir (a Dinka) and Machar (a Nuer) erupted into ethnic violence. What began as a power struggle within the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) spiraled into a brutal civil war. Massacres, sexual violence, and famine followed, leaving nearly 400,000 dead and displacing millions.
Multiple peace deals failed until the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), which brought Kiir and Machar into a unity government. However, implementation has been slow. Key provisions—such as forming a unified army, drafting a permanent constitution, and holding elections—remain unfulfilled.
Why Another War Looms
1. Delayed Elections and Political Tensions
South Sudan was supposed to hold its first post-independence elections in 2023, but they were postponed to December 2024. Opposition groups and civil society fear further delays, which could trigger unrest. Machar’s SPLM-IO and other factions accuse Kiir of consolidating power and suppressing dissent.
2. Economic Collapse and Corruption
South Sudan is rich in oil, yet its people remain among the poorest. Mismanagement and embezzlement have left the economy in shambles. Inflation is rampant, and food insecurity affects over 60% of the population. Frustration is growing, and without economic reforms, public anger could explode into violence.
3. Ethnic and Communal Violence
Even without a nationwide war, localized conflicts between ethnic militias over land, cattle, and resources have escalated. The government has failed to disarm these groups, and in some cases, politicians have armed them for their own gain. These clashes could easily spiral into broader conflict.
4. Regional Instability
Neighboring Sudan’s own civil war between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has spilled over, with refugees flooding into South Sudan and armed groups crossing borders. This external chaos adds fuel to an already volatile situation.
Can South Sudan Avoid Another War?
The international community, including the UN and the African Union, continues to push for peace, but without genuine political will from South Sudan’s leaders, progress is unlikely. Key steps to prevent another civil war include:
- Holding free and fair elections to establish legitimate governance.
- Disarming militias and integrating them into a national army.
- Fighting corruption and ensuring oil revenues benefit the people.
- Strengthening regional diplomacy to prevent spillover from Sudan’s conflict.
South Sudan’s people have endured too much for too long. The world’s youngest nation deserves a chance at lasting peace—but time is running out. Without urgent action, the country may soon find itself back in the nightmare of war.
